Obama: My Theory on Him Winning in Nov.
By Abul Layth on May 14, 2008 in Political Commentary, featured | comments(2)
It so happens that I am an Obama supporter. Now that either warrants a boastful Takfeeri smile from the Khariji SJers or an attack by some wacko Muslim Clinton supporter. While I was in London, I had attached to my jacket an OBAMA ‘O8 button that apparently warranted very interesting conversations from londoners. Some brazilian immigrant argued with me for an hour that it is impossible for a black man to win the presidency. Others argued that the white south would never vote for a black man.
This is my prediction on the upcoming election, but if you really want to see how it is going to go down you will need some visual aid to assist you in understanding my theory. Click here, then read on.
Goal: 270 Electoral Votes
Obama will unite the democratic party by choosing either Clinton as VP, or someone like Jim Webb. This means that he has 172 e. votes in the bag. - marked in dark blue on the map. The swing states, though they won’t be are a total of 80 Oregon - 7 : Washington - 11 : Minn. - 10 : Wis: 10 etc…
totalling 252…
The big question is where does the extra 18 come from?
Check this out: Notice the red-striped states in the map. If Obama just won Ohio, with all the other states that went democrat last time, it would be over and he would win. What if he loses?
Florida? 27 e. votes! Probably not though.
I have another possible scenario! I think he will win New Mexico =5 votes. The last margin was by less than 1 percent. I think he could win Iowa as well. Why? This state put him in! Not only that, the youth have come out strong for him in the state. Iowans are anti NAFTA as well; a plus for Obama. It is very possible - and likely - he will win Iowa! That is 7 more = 12 … 6 more? Where does he get it?
Colorado! It went for him big in the democratic caucus. Not only that but Colorado is much more open minded and democratic friendly than Florida. They have a Democratic governor! They also are hosting the Democratic National Convention, which brings a huge boost to the morale of the party as well as the independent vote there in Colorado. Not to mention that they hate bush, and we all know MCcain is another bush.
So there it is! He wins by taking New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa. Or he could just win Florida or Ohio, that simple!
There is, however, a snake in the grass. What if McCain wins the popular vote? What then? See, the following states have enacted a new voting platform:
Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland have enacted the National Popular vote bill, wherein the one who wins the popular vote, wins their electoral delegates. All of the states are Democratic states. So if such occurs, its over. Vermont and Maine have been added to that list. Remember that Bush/Cheney won the popular vote in the last election: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922901.html
Now. I have my doubts that the maps will be shaped like last time. I have a strong feeling that Louisiana will go democrat as they really hate the republicans right now. They even gave up a congressional seat to a democrat for the first time in a Loooong while.
Another state that could go Democrat is North Carolina. I have heard Obama supporters argue that their turnout rate was higher than expected and if they could win some more independent votes they could beat mc cain in North Carolina. In such a scenario, North Carolina would give up 15 votes. Needing only 3 more according to the plans above which could be a New Mexico or a Colorado or just one state to switch!
The Obama campaign has to get the vote out though. If they don’t they will lose hands down because of the states who have signed on to the popular vote bill.
That is my political theory.